David Trimble has emerged at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham to inform us that the Tories will be contesting every seat in the UK - with, what he hopes is forthcoming, the help of the UUP in Northern Ireland. Sunday was an unusually busy day for those of us who are following the UUP-Conservative talks as before Lord Trimble made his speech the Shadow Secretary of State, Owen Patterson, came out with what adds up to a bit of a non-statement really - 'sure if there were NI MPs they could maybe serve in the Cabinet at some point'.
I am actually glad it has been David Trimble that has said the Tories will contest every seat and not Sir Reg Empey. I for one would be very unhappy if Sir Reg was talking about contesting every seat in Northern Ireland before sitting down with the other unionist parties and discussing the situation in constituencies like South Belfast and Fermanagh & South Tyrone. My biggest fear at the moment for the UUP-Conservative negotiations is a misreading of the electorate, as I see (and many people disagree with me) no immediate bounce for any new political entity; I would also go as far as saying I would expect a dip in fortunes before any surge in support. An optimistic reading of the UUP position, expecting to squeeze the APNI vote, getting the non-voters on board and convincing yourself into believing that you are capable to contest every seat is foolish. I remember some of the comments from Westminster 2005 from UUP commentators and they were an embarrassment. Bunker syndrome is maybe the best description.
At the end of the day the UUP and its members have to be comfortable in their own skins. I support the CDU/CSU model I have discussed before. I support it as it enables the UUP to operate in Northern Ireland independently of the Conservative Party while tying into the Conservative Party at Westminster; the best of both worlds. The UUP must secure its selection of candidates (Westminster, Stormont and Local Government), protect its ethos and be willing to take a few risks.
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6 comments:
Ignited,
I am aware of the talks that have been going on. I won't reveal my identity, but I can confirm that, from the Tory side, there isn't a cat-in-hell's chance of some sort of alliance being acceptable. For them, it's either the full-on merger under the "Conservative & Unionist" banner or they walk away.
The view is that an alliance will have zero electoral bounce because the electorate will rightly perceive it as being the UUP repackaged.
They believe that either the UUP does the deal now and both parties benenfit or the Tories spend the next 10 years bulldoziong the shudder wreck of the UUP. That's why the statement on running in 18 seats come what may has been made.
Also, for them, there will be no question of standing down in FST or South Belfast to allow a 'unionist' to win. That would smack too much of a continuation of sectarian politics.
Have to agree with anon above. It would need to be an 18 seat go or else it smacks of same old sectarian politics repackaged. It is a lot to ask a party with over 100 years of history though to full out merge with the Conservatives so it appears difficult to square that circle with the demands of the local conservatives. Still the UUP needs the boost and even more so the campaign money that comes from CCHQ. Just need to find some candidates who wont look like dangerous old dinosaurs amongst the Cameroons.
Interesting words but I think a little too much is been read into them and they're being taken a trifle too literally.
What DT seems to say is the Tories will be standing across NI, and Owen seems to think, that if elected here, UU MPs can be in the cabinet. Contrast this with what the tories used to say, that it would be impossible for an MP with a Scottish seat, to be Prime Minister it is a step in the right direction.
The one glaringly obvious counter argument is that the Tories won't stand in Glasgow North East as it's the Speaker's constituency, so this is could clause that they won't stand in every seat, although they will contest every region.
In reterospect that last paragraph is not the most coherent piece of writing.
If the tories reasoned they don't stand in Glasgow North East to support the speaker, they can claim that the precedent of standing aside to support another candidate exists and apply it to South belfast or Fermanagh and South Tyrone.
The LibDems are prepared to stand aside to support others, as recent as the Haltemprice and Howden byelection, and Wyre Forest. Labour backed Martin Bell in 1997 but otherwise will stand in all mainland seats (unless the speaker is Labour).
Anon, DSD and Conq - Thanks for your opinions.
Anon - The NI Tories are not negotiating from a position of strength and I think to some extent that be lost in translation when David Cameron or Owen Paterson come into the equation. The UUP are bringing the established political force with the elected reps. If all the Conservatives bring to the table is finance (which is much needed) the UUP should not be held hostages to fortune.
CDU/CSU relationship could led to a full merger in the future. Short term a merger is a non starter for me. It would fail to address the problems in Northern Ireland - although a few peerages may 'persuade' a few well positioned people.
DSD - I think an '18 seat go or else' could well be a deathwish for a new political unionist entity. As an aspiration fine, but nothing more at the minute. Candidates wise the UUP-Tories have to be very careful - it is a minefield (as you well know).
'The NI Tories are not negotiating from a position of strength and I think to some extent that be lost in translation when David Cameron or Owen Paterson come into the equation.'
Dont understand - as far as I can ascertain from Cameron interview with Devenport and his speech he IS a NI Tory.
Conquistador - Owen Paterson has never said UU MPs could be in Cabinet - he said MPs elected from NI. One assumes he means as Conservatives?
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